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Economic growth to spread to all CEE countries this year

07.04.2016

Despite the recent turbulence in global financial markets, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) entered 2016 on a strong note, with economic activity gaining pace and financial markets resilient.  With growth in the Euro Area expected to hold well, ECB embarking on another round of Quantitative Easing, and the Fed adopting a dovish stance, growth should spread to all CEE countries this year and continue at a similar pace in 2017. According to the latest CEE Quarterly published by UniCredit Economics & FX/FI Research department, output expansion will be mainly driven by the ongoing recovery in domestic demand. However, growth will vary by pace and sustainability from country to country.

Spurred by concerns about China, global growth prospects and the health of the European banking sector, financial markets underwent major turbulence early in the year. Even though not substantiated by tangible evidence about an impending recession, the global selloff had a significant impact on emerging markets. Although markets calmed down, the global outlook for emerging markets has become more uncertain. Against this background, CEE-EU stood out as an island of stability with the downturn limited and the recovery swift. Recessions in Russia and Ukraine have eased.

GDP change in % Forecast for 2016 Forecast for 2017
EU Members
Bulgaria 3,4 3,6
Croatia 1,5 1,6
Poland 3,7 3,8
Romania 4,3 3,8
Slovakia 3,2 3,2
Slovenia 1,9 2,4
Czech Republic 2,2 3,0
Hungary 2,7 2,6
EU candidates and others
Bosnia-Herzegovina 3.0 3.4
Russia -2.5 1.2
Serbia 2.2 1.8
Turkey 3.3 3.4
Ukraine 2.0 2.5

Source: UniCredit Economics & FX/FI Research, CEE Quarterly 2Q16

Overall growth should remain the strongest and more balanced in the CEE-EU, but is likely to pick up pace also in Croatia and Serbia. Both, Russia and Ukraine, will exit recessions, but recoveries will remain uneven and slow, hindered by the absence of structural reforms needed to boost potential growth.

 

NOTE

Ukrsotsbank is one of the largest universal banks of Ukraine, operating in the local market since 1990. The bank offers full range of services to individuals and corporate clients.

The renovated Ukrsotsbank emerged on 31 October 2016 as a result of strategic deal whereby 99.9% of Ukrsotsbank shares have been transferred from UniCredit Group to ABH Holdings S.A. (АВНН) in exchange for a minority 9.9% stake in ABHH. Thus, the bank has combined 26-year-old traditions of Ukrsotsbank’s client-centric attitude, European quality of service inherent to UniCredit, as well as international banking expertise of ABHH in a number of European countries including CIS. Thanks to the successful synthesis and synergy of the two assets of ABHH in Ukraine, Ukrsotsbank and Alfa-Bank, the banking market of Ukraine will see the rise of a new stronger financial institution. This, in turn, will spur up technological advance, increase efficiency, improve quality of service for the clients, reduce cost of banking services whereas their range will inevitably expand.

The extensive retail network of Ukrsotsbank consists of 237 branches, its headcount reaching nearly 5 thousand employees.


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