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Borys Tymonkin: about UAH stability and Ukraine’s banking system development

13.02.2013

How will macroeconomic indices influence the development of Ukraine’s banking system in 2013?
There will be growth, though a small one. In order the development started, there should be the internal background, drive for the development. If we all, the bankers, will treat this passively, there will not be any growth. But in general, business misses the normal development. We cannot sit for a couple of years in a trench and wait when it gets worse. 5 years have passed since the beginning of crisis and we must do something. Sure, the business environment is not perfect, but we must move on and develop. If somebody has stopped, his/her place will not remain available. New companies and new beneficiaries appear. The life takes what it owns.

What segment of banking is most perspective? What the banks should invest to in 2013?
Now the most efficient are consumer loans, but this segment is limited in size – if everybody rushes there, it will soon be over. There is also a sense to invest into corporate loans, as economy growth of every country after the crisis starts from the beginning of crediting the economy and industry by the bankers. Later the economy stimulates the growth of consumer demand and revives the retail. Now there is a problem in retail – it is forbidden to credit people in USD. And crediting in UAH depends on self-cost of UAH, which is pretty high. So, every mortgage for 20 years looks crazy. With the rate of 17-20% per annum – this is ridiculous. It works only additionally: if somebody has 70-80% of the sum, and he/she understands that will return the loan in 2-3 years, there is sense to get a loan, it is not that scary, and then to move in a new apartment. In the same scheme the car loans are working: if a person understands he/she will repay in 2 years, but not in 5, as he/she signed for, there is sense to get a loan.

In which currency is it better to keep deposits in 2013?
It is enough to look at the difference of rates and to see that it is more profitable in UAH. This is not only my opinion, but also of the majority of Ukrainians. Since the end of December there started a clear reverse. Ukrainians started massively to deposit in UAH. UAH is needed, as a loan currency, as a working material for banking system. The rates in USD will rapidly decrease. In a few months 5% per annum would be a perfect rate for USD deposit.

Among currencies, which one is most perspective: USD, EUR, Yuan, Rubble?
Yuan is unreachable. I do not know where to buy it freely. Though it is an interesting currency, which is underestimated here. Russian Rubble – is also not a bad currency. In terms of EUR, people should be precautious due to problems in EU…

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